University of Connecticut
School of Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Environmental Engineering Program
Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
&
Atmospheric Sciences Group

Invite you to join us for the
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SPRING 2015 COLLOQUIUM SERIES

Friday, January 30th, 2015 • 12:15 PM • CAST 212

“An Investigation of Climate Change Influences on the Track and Intensity of Hurricane Sandy”

By: Gary M. Lackmann
Professor, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University

Abstract: Hurricane Sandy was associated with historic societal impacts when it made landfall along the New Jersey shore in late October 2012. The event generated vigorous discussions as to whether the severity, or perhaps occurrence, of the event was tied to anthropogenic climate change. Two related questions are (i) whether the frequency of this type of event is altered by anthropogenic climate change, and (ii) if the synoptic weather pattern accompanying Hurricane Sandy had taken place in 100 years in the past, or 100 years in the future, how would the track, intensity, and impacts have differed? Here, we investigate question (ii) using a simplified approach that is designed to quantify the storm-scale changes
attributable to large-scale thermodynamic changes. I will discuss the numerical model experimental design, and the limitations and advantages of the approach. First, hypotheses are presented as to how and why we would expect climate change t o alter Sandy’s track and intensity . An ensemble of numerical model simulations, in conjunction with GCM-derived large-scale thermodynamic changes, is used to analyze changes between current, past, and future versions of Sandy. The impact of climate change on the synoptic steering features that dictated Sandy’s track is characterized by offsetting physical processes. Future warming and increased precipitation and condensational heating serves to strengthen the downstream ridge to the north of Sandy, contributing to stronger westward storm motion. However, weakening of an upper-level trough to the south of Sandy, also due to increased
condensational heating, has the opposite effect. Increased future upper-level westerly flow leads to more progressive upper-level synoptic features, favoring a more eastward track with warming. Numerical experiments are required to determine which effect, if any, dominates. Results indicate that climate warming to date had a limited effect on the observed Sandy, but that projected future warming would result in a significantly stronger storm with a more northward landfall location. Questions that remain for future research involve climate-change influences on Sandy’s genesis and early track evolution. Bio: Dr. Gary Lackmann is a professor of meteorology and the Director of Graduate Programs in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University. Gary is a native of Seattle, Washington, and has worked as a research meteorologist for government laboratories
(NOAA/PMEL, Seattle), the military (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey), as a private sector consultant, and in academia. His primary research focus is on improving understanding and prediction of high-impact weather events, including hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and winter storms. Gary has a long-standing interest in climate change issues, and especially the question of how climate change relates to the frequency and intensity of storms.

PDF: An Investigation of Climate Change Influences on the Track and Intensity of Hurricane Sandy

Colloquium, November 21, Dept. of Physics

Speaker: Dr. Richard Sassoon, Managing Director of the Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University

Seeking New Technologies for Future Energy Systems

Abstract: Finding solutions for supplying the world with energy that is abundant, affordable, reliable, and environmentally clean is one of the grand challenges we face this century. This talk will describe the range of technologies needed to enable a sustainable energy future and provide an assessment of the obstacles that need to be overcome and the progress that needs to be made. It will center around the diverse portfolio of innovative energy research activities taking place under the Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) at Stanford University. The overall goal of the Project is to conduct breakthrough, fundamental research to generate technical options that could permit the development of global energy systems with significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions. The talk will provide an overview of its research strategy, accomplishments, and anticipated impact on the energy field.

Speaker: Richard Sassoon

Dr. Richard Sassoon is the Managing Director of the Global Climate and Energy Project where he coordinates and oversees all day-to-day operations of the Project. Prior to joining GCEP, Dr. Sassoon was Senior Scientist and Assistant Vice President at Science Applications International Corporation, where he worked with the U.S. Department of Energy in strategic planning and management of its environmental research programs. His research interests are in the area of photochemical solar energy conversion and storage systems. Dr. Sassoon received his B.Sc. in Chemistry from Leeds University, and his Ph.D. in Physical Chemistry from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

UConn’s Edwin Way Teale Lecture Series on Nature & the Environment

presents

Climate Change in the American Mind


Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz,
 Director, Yale Project on Climate Change Communication,
Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Thursday, November 20, 4 pm
Thomas J. Dodd Research Center, Konover Auditorium
University of Connecticut, Storrs

Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz is Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and a Research Scientist at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University. He will report on recent trends in Americans’ climate change knowledge, attitudes, policy support, and behavior and discuss strategies for more effective public engagement.

Dr. Leiserowitz is a widely recognized expert on American and international public opinion on global warming, including public perception of climate change risks, support and opposition for climate policies, and willingness to make individual behavioral change. His research investigates the psychological, cultural, political, and geographic factors that drive public environmental perception and behavior. He has conducted survey, experimental, and field research at scales ranging from the global to the local, including international studies, the United States, individual states (Alaska and Florida), municipalities (New York City), and with the Inupiaq Eskimo of Northwest Alaska. He also conducted the first empirical assessment of worldwide public values, attitudes, and behaviors regarding global sustainability, including environmental protection, economic growth, and human development. He has served as a consultant to the John F. Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University), the United Nations Development Program, the Gallup World Poll, the Global Roundtable on Climate Change at the Earth Institute (Columbia University), and the World Economic Forum.

http://doddcenter.uconn.edu/asc/events/teale/teale.htm – 860.486.4460

The Edwin Way Teale Lecture Series brings leading scholars and scientists to the University of Connecticut to present public lectures on nature and the environment.

The Atmospheric Sciences Group (ASG) is pleased to co-sponsor with the Department of Geography a seminar by Professor David A. Robinson (Rutgers University and New Jersey State Climatologist) to be followed by a panel discussion.

DATE:  Wed 19 November

TIME:   11:00 am-12:30pm  – including a panel discussion (Guiling Wang, Scott Stephenson, Anji Seth)

LOCATION:  Konover Auditorium @ Dodd Center

TITLE:  Snow Cover in the Climate System

Why should you be concerned about exposure to mold when severe wet weather has flooded buildings and things smell moldy???

Paula Schenck UConn Health’s Center for Indoor Environments and Health in Farmington, CT

schenck@uchc.edu

Living things need food, water, and a comfortable temperature to grow. Mold, the common name for fungi, can find food in almost anything organic in buildings; and because there are so many types of mold that thrive in a broad range of temperature, mold needs only water to begin growing. Many materials –wallboard, fabrics themselves (clothes, curtains) and those that trap dust (carpet) are a grand meal for mold. Even some well-constructed buildings that haven’t had moisture concerns in the past become wet from wind-driven rain and flood waters in severe storms. Once you note mold inside, what does that mean to you? Mold in indoor environments indicates moisture is available for biological growth. Studies have shown that with more water, you should be more concerned about the possibility for severe respiratory illness. Even after flood waters subside, water/moisture is left in materials and encourages life to grow-mold and bacteria. Some workers who are repeatedly called upon to respond to flooding events are at more risk with each additional event. When you see mold on walls or “mildew” as part of fabrics, and/or smell that musty tell-tale odor, you are at risk for illnesses associated with moisture. Mold may be: 1) a direct factor influencing illness, 2) an indicator of other biological agents and bioaerosols that grow in conditions of excessive moisture, or 3) acting on building materials to release chemicals and dusts that could affect your breathing health. There is much confusion about mold and health with equal measures of uncertainty and concern over indoor exposure to “toxic mold”. However with responsible information from sources such as World Health Organization’s 2009 report and EPA’s internet site on Mold Resources (http://www.epa.gov/mold/moldresources.html), it is clear that it is important to recognize the hazard from mold exposure (toxic or not)! Not everyone has the same level of health risk –children, the elderly, and those with breathing conditions or immune disorders are likely vulnerable-, but others are also of concern. So it is important for everyone to: 1) recognize the mold growing inside as a hazard; 2) protect yourself and others by either avoiding the environment or by using the right clothes and equipment when you are responding to storm events or cleaning up after the event; and 3) plan well and use methods in re-building your homes that recognize the risk from moisture intrusion, so that the buildings will better withstand the next storm—and contribute to a resilient community.

In the fall 2013, the Center for Indoor Environments and Health began work on – Recovery from catastrophic weather: mold exposure and health-related training (funded under the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Hurricane Sandy Cooperative Agreement 1U01OH010627-01. This blog is solely the responsibility of Paula Schenck and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIOSH)– Through this project a UConn team is working to provide information about mold, health and how to reduce consequences from mold exposure for emergency and recovery respondents and communities affected by Hurricane Sandy.

Send Paula an email at schenck@uchc.edu to learn about our first free workshop on November 14th.

For more information about the workshop, please see the attached flyer and brochure:

Flyer – UConn workshop on Hurricanes and Mold Nov 14 2014

Brochure – UConn workshop on Hurricanes and Mold Nov 14 2014

Catherine Pomposi, a former UConn honors student, will return to campus to talk about her current research this week. Catherine is currently an NSF Graduate Fellow at Columbia University.

Here are the details:

Date:  Friday, Oct  10 @ 11:30 am

Location: AUST 420 (Geography Conference Room)

Title: Understanding Sahelian Precipitation Variability on Key Timescales with a Moisture Budget Framework and Applications to Society

Abstract: In this talk, I will largely focus on decadal scale precipitation variability over the West African Sahel in the CAM4 Model, using a moisture budget framework. Overall results include the ability of the model to pick up important relationships between Sahel precipitation variability on decadal timescales with the Indian and Atlantic basins, and shows that the change in precipitation minus evaporation in the region is dominated by column integrated moisture convergence due to the mean flow, with the convergence of mass in the atmospheric column mainly responsible. Diagnosis of moisture budget and circulation components within the main rainbelt and along the monsoon margins show that changes to the mass convergence are related to the magnitude of precipitation that falls in the region, while the advection of dry air is associated with the maximum latitudinal extent of precipitation. I will then briefly introduce the next step of this work, which is to continue studying the moisture budget prior to the monsoon onset, which provides insight into the interannual and seasonal variability of the system. Finally, I provide information about a recent trip to Senegal which allows for highlighting the kinds of climate services workshops that are in place in the Sahel, and bridges the scientific aspects of monsoon study with societal needs and a human component.

Monsoons & Climate

Climate Change Likely to Affect Monsoons

Photo: Anji Seth, assistant professor of geography. Photo by Daniel Buttrey

January 12, 2011

Article By: Cindy Weiss

Monsoon areas of the world may experience wetter, later monsoon seasons following longer periods of drier weather, all due to global climate change, according to a new study led by Anji Seth, assistant professor of geography in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and colleagues at other universities.

Once the wet season arrives, it is likely to rain more, but it may take longer for the rains to get started, she says.

The longer, drier transition period and the wetter monsoon season would have implications for agriculture, as the dry season and higher temperatures deplete moisture and a shorter monsoon season brings more rainfall in less time.

“Changes tend to pose challenges,” Seth says, noting that the monsoon regions are also major agricultural regions.

In the Southern Hemisphere, monsoon rains generally begin in October and peak from December through February. In the Northern Hemisphere, they usually occur from June to September.

Results of the study were published Nov. 10 in Climatic Change Letters and were featured in the Nov. 30 Research Highlights section of the online journal Nature Climate Change.

The study was conducted with colleagues of Seth’s at the Los Alamos National Lab, the University of Chile, and Columbia University.

“I would consider this an early result,” Seth says, adding that more research is needed to understand the mechanism of what is happening and the plausibility of the results.

The researchers examined climate model data for the last 30 years to show the present-day climate and projections for 30 years at the end of the 21st century.

They used a data set with 24 global climate models projecting what would happen assuming higher CO2 emissions, which gave them a clearer picture of changes. That scenario also reflects what will happen unless emissions are controlled.

A recent analysis showed that current C02 emissions are actually higher than the highest CO2 scenario in the models, she says, “so it’s not an unreasonable thing to look at.”

Meteorology at Sea

The Hunt for 18° Water

Oceanographers examine “mode waters” that save the signals of past winters

By Michael Carlowicz

Originally published online April 5, 2006 : In print Vol. 45, No. 1, Apr. 2006

Terry Joyce is looking for Val Worthington’s water.

In 1959, Woods Hole oceanographer Valentine Worthington gave a name and identity to a long-observed but poorly understood phenomenon of the North Atlantic Ocean. Analyzing data from as far back as the H.M.S. Challenger expedition of the 1870s, Valentine described how the interior of the Sargasso Sea contained distinct parcels of water with remarkably constant salinity, density, and temperature—roughly 18°C (64° F). To Worthington, the appropriate name for this quirky mass was simple and straightforward: 18° water.

In the early 1970s, Worthington persuaded colleagues and funding agencies to mount an expedition to study 18° water. He saw connections between these peculiar water masses and the circulation of the entire North Atlantic, as well as the weather above it. But when he finally went to sea in 1974 and 1975, he couldn’t find what he was looking for.

Researchers now know that 18° water is produced by a critical energy transfer between warm Gulf Stream water and the cold winter atmosphere. Unfortunately for Worthington, he went to sea in the midst of a warm winter, an ebb time in the assembly line of production of 18° water.

Decades later, his successors in the Physical Oceanography Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and from eight other oceanographic institutions have launched a far-reaching program to examine the formation and evolution of Worthington’s famous water and how it might influence North Atlantic climate. The CLIVAR Mode Water Dynamics Experiment (CLIMODE) began its own series of expeditions in November 2005, and this time researchers seem to be finding what their predecessor was looking for.

An oceanic layer cake

During winter, chilly winds blow from the Arctic and North American interiors out to sea, where the warm Gulf Stream rides east over the Sargasso Sea. The cool, dry winds pull heat and moisture from the Stream and carry them off to Europe and North Africa. The cooler, salty water left behind forms a layer on top of the ocean that can extend 1,300 feet (400 meters) deep.

Spring and summer heat eventually warms the surface again, but the chilled waters formed in winter do not dissipate. They are denser than warm waters, so they sink—not to the seafloor, but to the middle of the sea. This layer of water hangs suspended between warm surface waters and even colder deep waters, wedged like butter cream in the midst of a layer cake.

Oceanographers call 18° water and other water masses like it “mode water,” a term for a mass of water that has homogeneous temperature and other characteristics. Mode waters are like pools within the deeper and wider pool of world oceans, and they form in the middle latitudes all over the world. (The Kuroshio Current in the northwest Pacific and the Agulhas Current in the southwest Indian Ocean are also famous for mode-water creation.) Once they form and sink, layers of mode water remain relatively intact for several years and are swept around by the ocean’s circulation.

As Worthington wrote in 1959, “the 18° water is of more than usual interest” because it can often be found hundreds of miles to the south and west of where it is formed, “in places where the winter surface temperature is far higher than 18° and there is no possibility of it being formed locally.” In fact, Worthington’s 18° water can be found as far south as the Caribbean.

Terry Joyce, a WHOI senior scientist who worked down the hall from Worthington for many years, said 18° water is a bit like a memory bank for North Atlantic climate: It freezes a memory of conditions from the winter when it was formed and carries around the ocean.

“At the end of each winter season, the Sargasso Sea puts this water away as if it were going to a safe deposit box, storing it away for sometime later,” Joyce said. Researchers believe this stored water can later influence and regulate how quickly or slowly the ocean and atmosphere can change in future seasons. After migrating to warmer climes or drifting back to the Gulf Stream, it eventually mixes with and tempers warmer surface waters.

Hoping for bad weather

The CLIMODE team of investigators is doing everything it can to chronicle and understand the water that so excited their predecessor. They have so many questions.

• How much heat is gained, lost, and stored in the ocean-atmosphere exchange that creates 18° water? How high into air and deep below the ocean surface does this interaction reach?
• Where does 18° water go after it forms? How does it move horizontally through the ocean?
• How big are these wedges of water, and how do they affect other elements of ocean circulation?
• What role does sinking mode water play in sequestering carbon dioxide, nutrients, and heat from the surface in the ocean depths, and how does that affect climate and marine life from year to year?

From 2005 through 2007, the CLIMODE team will spend 107 days at sea, crisscrossing the Gulf Stream by ship and spreading instruments all over it. The project, funded by the National Science Foundation, is a mix of satellite-based observations, ship-based observations led by Joyce, and computer modeling led by John Marshall of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The first two cruises—19 days in November 2005 and 14 days in January 2006 on the WHOI-operated research vessels Oceanus and Atlantis—were typical of what is to come. Joyce and colleagues from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography lowered conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) samplers and water-sampling bottles into the sea dozens of times to characterize the ingredients, dimensions, flows, and properties of the 18° layer.

WHOI researchers Dave Fratantoni and John Lund and NOAA scientist Rick Lumpkin cast surface drifters and special bobbing floats that can drift horizontally and vertically with the water as it sinks, meanders, and sometimes gets stirred up into circularly spinning currents called eddies (see “The Oceans Have Their Own Weather Systems”).

To measure the interaction between sea and sky, WHOI’s Bob Weller and the University of Connecticut’s Jim Edson deployed a moored weather buoy and 30 instrumented weather balloons. A specialized buoy was released by Edson and WHOI oceanographer John Toole to drift with the Gulf Stream; it was then recaptured after simultaneously measuring conditions above and below the ocean’s surface.

All the while, the researchers were hoping for 35- to 40-knot winds and 5°C (40°F) air temperatures that could cool and churn the sea enough to start the mode-water assembly line. Nature did not disappoint this winter, and the CLIMODE team is hoping for cold, windy conditions when it goes back to sea for another six weeks next winter.

Worthington would be pleased.

The National Science Foundation provided funding for CLIMODE. The five-year program includes researchers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the University of Connecticut, Florida State University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Washington, Duke University, the University of Miami, Oregon State University, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.